Integrated Assessment of Prairie Agricultural Resilience and Adaptation Options
Over the past 5 years, governments have made an average of $3 billion/yr in direct agriculture payments related to droughts and poor growing seasons in the Prairies. A qualitative study suggested a substantial northward shift in Prairie agricultural zones by 2050. A model-based assessment suggested a much smaller impact but was conducted only for selected sites. A model-based, spatially-explicit assessment is needed for policy- and decision-makers to understand the issue and for assessing adaptation options. To meet this need, a study was conducted jointly with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), using ESS expertise in spatially-explicit modelling. Building on this, this project aims to undertake an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for Prairie land use using leading edge geomatics and geoscience approaches. Biomass production will be incorporated into the assessment with the expectation that the governments 5% biofuel strategy would represent an adaptation option. Results will be fed into AAFCs policy process dealing with adaptation.
For detailed information about this activity please contact the activity leader.
Leader: Aining Zhang
The model-based, spatial assessment of the biophysical response of major crops to climate change will be expanded to cover all Prairie crops, reduce the simulation uncertainty by incorporating spatial variation of wind and temporal variation of soil nutrients and provide results for AAFCs assessment of adaptation options based on current land use options and for integrated adaptation assessment beyond current land use.
Leader: Dr. Kevin Sprague
Discussions with AAFC and the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate resulted in the conclusion that adaptors' responses must be considered in assessing agricultural resilience to climate change, including the potential of the biofuel strategy as an adaptation option. Building on the prototype agent-based land use change model (ABM) developed in previous years, and in collaboration with AAFC and academia, this activity aims to make the ABM operational and assess adaptation options beyond present land use. ABM is a leading edge research topic in geomatics. This activity is therefore a promising but high risk endeavour. Go/no-go decisions will be made in year ends, subject to success in yrs 1 & 2.
Leader: Aining Zhang
This activity will bring all the pieces from the Prairie activities together to perform a spatially-explicit integrated assessment of land use change in the Canadian Prairies in response to climate change scenarios for the mid-term future (2040-2069), and jointly with AAFC partners, to produce a policy document addressing the resilience of Prairie agriculture and its spatial distributions.