Visualization for Communication and Consideration of Climate Change Impacts
A wealth of knowledge has been gained in recent years about the impacts associated with global climate change. However, there is a gap between climate change information and community response in the form of adaptation measures. This activity aims to bridge this gap by providing new approaches to community engagement through local “visioning” projects. Using digital mapping and scientific information, realistic imagery is created to show how communities would look under alternative future scenarios.
The Topic
There is an urgent need for governments at all levels in Canada to make decisions concerning adaptation and planning strategies for greenhouse gas reduction. The magnitude of this challenge requires integrating input from multiple disciplines and the public into climate change planning. However, there are few planning processes in place that permit Canadian communities to translate global and national imperatives into: a) tangible local planning and land management practices, and b) decision-making processes that foster the development of climate change adaptation or mitigation alternatives.
The tidal flats provide important habitat for a variety of migratory birds and juvenile salmon. Larger image
Communities on the Fraser River Delta (located near Vancouver) are facing risks in the form of sea level rise, increased storm surge heights, and more extreme rainfall events. Research on the Roberts Bank tidal flats on the Fraser River Delta was undertaken by Natural Resources Canada’s previous climate change program, Reducing Canada's Vulnerability to Climate Change (RCVCC). The study included the assessment of various physical, ecological, and socio-economic factors contributing to the vulnerability of the area and included the development of long-range scenarios that alter the vulnerability of the area to climate-induced changes.
The flats are also the site of two major port facilities, the Deltaport (coal and container terminals, pictured) and the Tsawwassen ferry terminal. Larger image
To aid in the communication of climate change impacts, scientists from the Enhancing Resilience in a Changing Climate (ERCC) program have collaborated with a GEOIDE funded project (Local Climate Change Visioning Project) at the University of British Columbia (UBC) and staff from the Corporation of Delta to develop a community visioning process. Using sea level rise information collected from the RCVCC study, this activity communicates the impacts sea level rise will have on Delta by 2100. Accompanied by a community engagement process, the visioning process will help raise awareness of climate change impacts and inform decision-making processes.
Results
Scientists from Natural Resources Canada lead community members on a field trip to discuss impacts of sea level rise on the Roberts Bank tidal flats. Larger image
Visualisations were created for the Roberts Bank tidal flats and Beach Grove at Boundary Bay, Delta BC. Scenarios were based on local geography, regional policies, and climate change risks. The scenarios were developed with input from local government, community members, and the science community.
Forecasting the effects of climate change requires the consideration of different future possibilities and outcomes. Many outcomes are possible depending on the magnitude of global climate warming and the extent of community adaptation measures. Therefore, the scenarios were created for four possible “future world” outcomes:
- World 1: Do Nothing (+175% Carbon emissions, no effective climate change policies or plans)
- World 2: Adapt to Risk (+175% Carbon emissions, planned adaptations to minimize risk of impacts)
- World 3: Efficient Development (+70% emissions, green policies introduced incrementally, planned adaptations similar to World 2)
- World 4: Deep Sustainability (-85-100% Carbon emissions, low Carbon policies carried out early, planned adaptations similar to World 2 but delayed)
Climate change visualisations for the Beach Grove area of Delta at high tide. Left: current (2000) conditions at Beach Grove. Middle: 2100 under World 1 scenario. Right: 2100 under World 4 scenario. All images courtesy of David Flanders, UBC.
Climate change visualisations for the Roberts Bank tidal flats. Left: aerial photograph of a portion of the study area. Middle: mean tide level, 2000. Right: high tide, 2100, under World 1 scenario. All images courtesy of David Flanders, UBC.
The next phase of this activity will be a case study in Toronto. This study will build on existing research by the ERCC program (see Heat Island Impacts in the Greater Toronto Area), the City of Toronto, and the Toronto Clean Air Partnership (CAP) to develop visualizations related to urban heat island and flooding effects that are exacerbated by climate change and increasing urban intensification. The case study team will define climate change scenarios over time, including associated temperature variation and GHG emissions relative to policy targets.
To address urban heat concerns, university researchers at UBC will work with their counterparts at Natural Resources Canada, CAP, Environment Canada, and the City of Toronto to identify hot spots (using thermal imagery), related urban form and vegetation (using LiDAR), and possible adaptation/mitigation synergies. Visualisations will be developed for various cooling strategies for different neighbourhood types including changing urban form, green roofs and walls, urban forestry, and high albedo surfaces. These solutions will be tested with City staff and stakeholder groups and may support the City's public consultation plan, Live Green.