Extreme Changes in Great Lakes Paleo-Levels in the Early Holocene

Activity Rationale

The Great Lakes, shared by the United States and Canada, support more than 33 million persons and host well-developed economic, recreational, and power production industries. Since economic activity and ecological resources are affected by lake-level variation, accurate projections of departures from current levels under future changing climates are needed. This activity, coordinated with parallel US efforts, evaluates the sensitivity of lake-level response to changes in climate as an aid to modelling future levels to provide context for adaptation planning.

Activity leaders: Steve Blasco and Mike Lewis

The Topic

Measured water levels in the Michigan-Huron basins varied by ±0.85 m from 1900 to 2000 (AD). Some projections indicate the mean of these levels will decline about 1.4 m by 2090, beyond the range of previously measured variability (Mortsch et al., 2000).
Measured water levels in the Michigan-Huron basins varied by ±0.85 m from 1900 to 2000 (AD). Some projections indicate the mean of these levels will decline about 1.4 m by 2090, beyond the range of previously measured variability (Mortsch et al., 2000). Larger image

Estimating future changes in lake levels requires hydrological modelling in which future climate conditions are used to project future water levels. Accurate forecasts on which adaptation measures can be planned and budgeted require knowledge of the sensitivity of lake levels to climatic variation beyond the modest range of variation that we see today.

In the past, there were periods when climatic conditions resulted in lake levels falling so low that they no longer overflowed and became closed (closed-lake conditions). Closed-lake conditions that were driven by climate in Great Lakes hydrologic history provide a unique case study for evaluating the sensitivity of the Great Lakes to current and future climate change.

A partial map reconstruction of the shorelines in closed-lake conditions in the Huron (H), Georgian Bay (G), Erie (E), and Ontario (O) basins. Past (8,700 years ago) shorelines are in yellow, present shorelines are in white.
A partial map reconstruction of the shorelines in closed-lake conditions in the Huron (H), Georgian Bay (G), Erie (E), and Ontario (O) basins. Past (8,700 years ago) shorelines are in yellow, present shorelines are in white. Larger image

Future higher air and water temperatures, reduced ice cover, and more evaporation, leading to lower lake levels, are anticipated. Water level declines are important; the shipping industry, for example, estimates it will lose millions of dollars each year for every 2.5 cm of decline as ships reduce cargo to avoid going aground.

The closed-lake conditions began about 8,900 years ago, and demonstrate the lakes’ high degree of sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, looking at past hydrological responses to changes in climate provides useful insights in projecting lake-level response to future climate scenarios.


Results

The past low lake conditions were a response to the combined effects of an early Holocene dry climate and an abrupt shortage in water supply when upstream glacial meltwater drainage from Lake Agassiz switched from the Great Lakes (Superior) basin to the Ottawa River valley.

Evidence supporting this hypothesis includes the following:

  • Tree stumps have been found in growth position under water up to 43 m below Georgian Bay. These trees would have required lower past water levels.
  • Buried organic-rich sand beds from the French River area, an outlet at the time, reveal two separate occurrences when lake outflow stopped and closed-lake conditions commenced.
  • Microfossils indicate brackish conditions in Georgian Bay, consistent with a regime of high evaporation.
  • Submerged beaches and deep wave-eroded zones establish low water levels in Michigan, Huron, Georgian Bay, and Erie basins. This also occurred in Lake Simcoe, a tributary lake (below).
  • Shallow-water fossils and peat deposition beneath deep-water sediments establish low lake levels in the Ontario basin consistent with low water levels in Hamilton Harbour (Delorme, 1996; Duthie et al., 1996).
  • A low-level beach was confirmed in the Superior basin (Wattrus 2007, with U. Minnesota-Duluth).

The state of the climate during times of low levels in the Great Lakes is indicated by data derived from the sedimentary record in small lakes within the Great Lakes basin. For example, pollen from Preston Lake sediments reflect the past vegetation and show that the climate during the time of closed-lake conditions was characterized by reduced precipitation and temperature.

Experimental hydrologic modeling of lake closure in terms of precipitation decrease and temperature increase (consistent with expectations of future climate) by the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory shows that the climate during the time of low lake levels in the Great Lakes was substantially drier than today.


Experimental hydrological modeling shows that, relative to the present climate, large decreases in precipitation coupled with increases in mean air temperature would be required to drive each of the present Great Lakes below their outlets. The conditions required in order for the lakes to become closed are indicated along the blue lines for each lake. These values indicate that the past closed-lake climate was substantially drier than the present climate (from Croley and Lewis, 2006). Larger image


Plot of reconstructed water level (blue) and outlet (gray) elevations in the Huron basin. Once the Great Lakes entered the present non-glacial hydrological regime (1), the water level descended to a closed-lake (2) about 20 m below the basin outlet level. This was due to the dry early Holocene climate in which water losses by evaporation from the lake surface exceeded water gains by precipitation in the drainage basin (from Lewis et al., 2008). Larger image

 


Underwater photograph of a tree stump in growth position in Georgian Bay. Such stumps have been discovered down to 43 m water depth and require past lake surfaces to have been below their root levels for growth (Blasco et al., 1997). Larger image

 


Logs of cores from a basin within the ancient outlet channel (French River valley) of the upper Great Lakes show buried, organic-rich, sand beds (inset photos), separated by lake deposits. The sand beds represent intervals of closed conditions when receding upper Great Lake water levels fell below the outlet threshold, isolating the basin and reducing its water level (diagram courtesy of Dr. G.R. Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada). Larger image

 


Wave-eroded zones are seen in the configuration of sediment layers in the lakebed of Lake Simcoe. Low lake levels in Lake Simcoe led to an increase in wave erosion in the basin. This is indicated by the discontinuous bedding planes (shown in the diagram as dark lines within the green unit) at the top of the white arrows. Bedding planes are normally continuous in an accumulating body of sediment (seen in the red, purple, and blue units), indicating limited wave erosion due to higher lake levels (from Todd et al., 2008). Larger image

 


Pollen diagram from Preston Lake, a small basin between lakes Ontario and Simcoe, with estimates of past annual precipitation and mean monthly air temperatures. During the time when the Great Lakes were very low (long horizontal red rectangle), precipitation was about 200 mm/year less than today. The presence of aquatic peat at that time indicates that Preston Lake nearly dried up in the dry climate (diagram courtesy of J.H. McAndrews, University of Toronto.) Larger image.



Links

Article explores climate change impacts on lake levels in the Great Lakes.

Water Levels in the Great Lakes: A Cross-border Problem

Great Lakes Sensitivity to Climatic Forcing, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

References

Please note that subscriptions may be required for access to some articles.

Check for more recent publications in GEOSCAN, the publications database of the Geological Survey of Canada and the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing.

Blasco, S.M., Janusas, S.E., McClellan, Amos, A. 1997. Prehistoric drainage across the submerged Niagara Escarpment. Leadung Edge ’97, Niagara Escarpment and Long Point World Biosphere Reserve Conference Proceedings, 16-18 October 1997, Burlington, Ontario, pp. 218-228

Croley II, T.E., Lewis, C.F.M. 2006. Warmer and drier climates that make terminal Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research 32, 852-869.

Delorme, L.D. 1996. Burlington Bay, Lake Ontario: its paleolimnology based on fossil ostracodes. Water Quality Journal Canada 31, 643-671.

Duthie, H.C., Yang. J.-R., Edwards, T.W.D., Wolfe, B.B., Warner, B.G. 1996. Hamilton Harbour, Ontario: 8300 years of limnological and environmental change inferred from microfossil and isotopic analysis. Journal of Paleolimnology 15, 79-97.

Lewis, C.F.M., Blasco, S.M. and P.L. Gareau. 2005. Glacial isostatic adjustment of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin: Using the empirical record of strandline deformation for reconstruction of early Holocene paleo-lakes and discovery of a hydrologically closed phase. Géographie physique et Quaternaire, 59(2-3), 187-210.  

Lewis, C.F.M., Heil, C.W. Jr., Hubeny, J.B., King, J.W., Moore, T.C. Jr., and Rea, D.K. 2007. The Stanley unconformity in Lake Huron basin: Evidence for a climate-driven closed lowstand about 7900 14C BP, with similar implications for the Chippewa lowstand in Lake Michigan basin. Journal of Paleolimnology, 37, 435-452.

Lewis, C.F.M., Karrow, P.F., Blasco, S.M., McCarthy, F.M.G., King, J.W., Moore Jr., T.C., Rea, D.K. 2008. Evolution of lakes in the Huron basin: Deglaciation to present. Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management 11, 127-136.

Lewis, C.F.M., King, J.W., Blasco, S.M., Brooks, G.R., Coakley, J.P., Croley II, T.E., Dettman, D.L., Edwards, T.W.D., Heil Jr., C.W., Hubeny, J.B., Laird, K.R., McAndrews, J.H., McCarthy, F.M.G., Medioli, B.E., Moore Jr., T.C., Rea, D.K., Smith, A.J. 2008. Dry climate disconnected the Laurentian Great Lakes. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 89(52), 541-542.

Todd, B.J., Lewis, C.F.M., Anderson, T.W. 2008. Quaternary features beneath Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada: drumlins, tunnel channels, and records of proglacial to postglacial closed and overflowing lakes. Journal of Paleolimnology 39, 361-380. DOI 10.1007/s10933-007-9111-4

Wattrus, N.J. 2007. Evidence of drowned paleoshorelines in western Lake Superior. Paper presented to the 50th Annual Conference of the International Association for Great Lakes Research, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 28 May-1 June 2007.