First Global System for Forecasting Wildfire Risks
September 2011
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Fighting fire with fire: Specialists ignite a backfire to burn out the fuel in front of a forest fire
Disaster fires are fires that overwhelm human capabilities to protect people, property and natural resources. These fires can have significant human and financial costs.
To help manage fires globally before they get out of control, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and international partners have developed The Global Early Warning System for Wildland Fire (Global EWS).
The Global EWS provides standardized forecasts of daily fire danger ratings around the world. Advanced warning of severe burning conditions provides additional time to implement fire suppression action plans to stop disaster fires before they develop.
The Science behind the Global EWS
Extreme fire risk occurs in areas of dry forest, shrublands and grasslands characterized by large amounts of highly flammable fuel in the organic soil, surface litter and dead woody material. High winds contribute to the rapid spread of fire once it starts. For a fire manager, this translates to a high risk of multiple fires that will be difficult to control.
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Screenshot of the Global Fire Danger Index on July 14, 2011, shows global ratings of extreme fire danger
The Global EWS uses another NRCan product, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, to measure the impact of daily weather on fuel moisture levels and fire behaviour.
“The FWI System is founded on basic principles of the moisture dynamics of wood,” says Bill de Groot, an NRCan research scientist and team lead of the project. “Essentially, it is a moisture level accounting system. Humidity, temperature, precipitation and wind speeds are used by the FWI System to determine how much moisture is going into fuels and how much is going out.” The Global EWS uses this data to assess potential fire risk.
The new global system will also enhance existing national fire danger rating systems through new data streams that better predict weather patterns. Currently, seven days of weather prediction data are available in comparison to the 4–6 hour predictions that national systems usually provide. The Global EWS will provide 14-day forecasts in the near future.
The Goal
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NRCan employee holding a weather meter that measures temperature, relative humidity and wind speed
The Global EWS will provide a national fire danger rating system for the many countries currently lacking one.
The goal is to enable better international fire management cooperation. “The global wildland fire community recognizes the problem that no one country has all of the physical resources they need to prevent or suppress all disaster fires,” says Bill. “The Global EWS will support improved international coordination for the mitigation of disaster fires by providing the information necessary for cross-border resource sharing.”
Future developments to the Global EWS tool include the calibration of regional data including historical fire and weather data to classify locally specific thresholds of fire danger. While the Global EWS can be used for large-scale, cross-border decision-making, regionally calibrated systems can be used for more operational decisions at a national or sub-national level.
Access the Global Early Warning System for Wildfire online. For more information, visit the Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics Web site.
To read about related articles, see Forest Disturbances
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