Modelling Net-Zero with the Institut de l'énergie Trottier

Lead Proponent

La Corporation de L'école Polytechnique de Montréal, Institut de l'énergie Trottier

Project Objectives

The objective of this Project is to produce the Canadian Energy Outlook 2021, a Canadian-specific outlook that will include multiple business-as-usual and energy transition scenarios to 2050.

The ultimate goal is to inform the work of the Net Zero by 2050 Panel on pathways to achieve net-zero by 2050.  This work will also support Canadian energy system stakeholders in understanding the potential of clean energy, energy efficiency and energy innovation in Canada’s future energy system.

The Outlook will explore pathways to reduce GHG emissions so as to reach carbon neutrality by the 2050 goal.

Expected Results

This new outlook will analyze the impact of changes that have occurred in the last 2-3 years in the energy sector and point to potential impacts of the various mitigation pathways to energy decision makers in all Canadian jurisdictions. For the first time, it will:

• Include scenarios with net zero carbon emission targets by 2050.
• Capture GHG from all energy and non-energy sectors such as agriculture, industrial processes and waste.
• Include net negative emission options such as biomass-fired power plants with CCS.

The outlook will also focus on:

• Clean technology that will play a critical role in achieving the net- zero by 2050 goal. This modelling exercise will help identify the most cost-effective technologies to achieve net-zero by 2050.
• This work will also help inform a strategy on decarbonizing hard-to-abate heavy industry – cement, iron, steel and others – by discussing key technologies that could offer the most cost-effective ways to achieve decarbonisation in those sectors.
• The role that technology innovation and associated costs, an area of uncertainty, will be explored through sensitivity analysis.

Project Outcomes

• Publication of the Canada Energy Outlooks report 2021